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August 1, 2022 – Market Insights

August 01, 2022
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Undaunted by another Fed rate hike and news of a contracting economy, the stock market rallied last week on better-than-expected corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.97%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 picked up 4.26%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 4.70% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.95%.1,2,3

Stocks Rally on Earnings

It was an inauspicious start to the week after a big-box retailer missed earnings and reduced forward guidance on Tuesday, sparking a broad market retreat.

But sentiment improved following mega-cap technology company earnings that proved better than expected. Enthusiasm gathered steam in the wake of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike, boosted by Fed Chair Powell’s comments following Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Powell indicated that it might become appropriate to slow the pace of future hikes, and he didn’t believe the economy had entered into recession. Stocks on Thursday shrugged off news of a second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth to build on Wednesday’s gains as fresh earnings continued to comfort, if not impress, investors.4

Economy Contracts 

The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter as consumers pulled back on spending and businesses worked to reduce inventories. It was the second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession. Unlike past recessions, hiring has been strong all year, with the unemployment rate near historic lows.5

The economic slowdown was attributable primarily to decreases in inventories, a deceleration in the housing market, and lower government spending. Consumer spending increased a tepid one percent, well below the inflation rate during the same period.6

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.

Tuesday: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index. Factory Orders.

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Employment Situation.

Source: Econoday, July 29, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

Footnotes and Sources

  1. The Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2022
  2. The Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2022
  3. The Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2022
  4. The Wall Street Journal, July 27, 2022
  5. CNBC, July 28, 2022
  6. CNBC, July 28, 2022

 

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