Experience has demonstrated that Artificial Intelligence (AI), like other technologies, will likely cause both disruption and growth opportunities. Even though AI is a headline-grabber today, AI has come a long way in the last few decades.
"We propose that a 2-month, 10-man study of artificial intelligence be carried out during the summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. The study is to proceed on the basis of the conjecture that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it. An attempt will be made to find how to make machines use language, form abstractions and concepts, solve kinds of problems now reserved for humans, and improve themselves. We think that a significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems if a carefully selected group of scientists work on it together for a summer.1 "
That was the original proposal made in 1955 for a summer study where, for the first time, the term Artificial Intelligence (AI) was coined by Marvin Minsky, John McCarthy and others. After many decades of enthusiasm, disillusionment, and accomplishments, the benefits, advancements, and fears of AI have been measured and quantified. Here, we’ll try to provide some of those insights.
- AI will add $15.7 trillion to the global GDP by 2030. China could be taking home 26.1%, or $4.10 trillion, followed by the U.S. taking 14.5%, or $2.28 trillion. (Source: PwC)
- Leading AI countries could capture an additional 20% to 25% in net economic benefits, compared with today, while developing countries might capture only about 5% to 15%, widening economic gaps between countries. (Source: McKinsey & Co.)
- Annual growth rates of gross value added (a close approximation of GDP) are expected to double by 2035, comparing baseline growth in 2035 to an artificial intelligence scenario where AI has been absorbed into the economy. In the U.S. only, that will result in 4.6% annual growth compared to a baseline scenario of 2.6%. (Source: Accenture and Frontier Economics)
- By 2035, AI will increase labor productivity levels by 35% in the U.S. (Source: Accenture and Frontier Economics)
- AI has the potential to boost profitability by an average of 38% by 2035. AI will most increase profitability in Education (+84%), Accommodation and Food Services (+74%) and Construction (+71%) industries. (Source: Accenture)
- AI will create 2.3 million jobs by the year 2020, while 1.8 million will disappear. By 2022, one in five workers engaged in mostly non-routine tasks will rely on AI to do a job. (Source: Gartner)
- AI could free up 30% of the government workforce's time within five to seven years given that many tasks can be automated. In fact, federal and state workers spend at least 20% of their time on tasks they consider unimportant. (Source: Deloitte)
Intelligent automation, labor and capital augmentation, and innovation acceleration are some of the ways AI will accomplish the aforementioned estimates. AI will be everywhere in a few years. There are many companies seeking to make breakthroughs in AI all around the world, and for those reasons, we continue to believe that investing in the next drivers and enablers of growth present some of the best risk/reward opportunities.
For more on AI, check out our last year’s white paper “Artificial Intelligence beckons the next wave of growth.”
1Retrieved from: http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/history/dartmouth/dartmouth.html